Saturday, April 16, 2011

A NOTE TO INVESTORS: THE RISE OF THE AFRICAN PHOENIX

"Ex Africa semper alliquid novi" Pliny the Elder
Pliny the Elder, on his various travels as a Roman official summed up the dark continent in his words, translated as, "Out of Africa, always something new". Africa is a combination of many different cultures, similar enough but yet distinct from each other in several important ways. The problem with the West and most of the BRIC countries is that they are trying to deal with us like we are one homogenous group of people; but this is not the case. I know about Ghana, I have indeed figured out many things on my end - when I came back from the US, I had the same idealistic approach as all returnees who are new to the system but I have had to learn the very hard way the reality of things so I think radically different from them.

Ghana is developing its very own unique model for sustainable and accelerated development. Our leaders are finally realizing that we have to do as the BRICs did, which is to stop blindly photocopying Western ideas and values and begin evolving our own strategic development models, informed by pre-existing models but tailor-made to suit us. In this sense, there are many differences in our values and our cultures - it doesn't make either system right or wrong because they should not be directly compared, that skews things in favor of the bias of the analyst. The West tends to take the high road to advice the rest of the world how to handle its affairs, to some extent this is necessary - but all the examples of nations that succeeded display that they did so by solving their own problems and not always begging for help from the West. The BRICs for example are not perfect democracies but they are gaining dominance because the Western model has its fair share of flaws - chief among them being that it believes its system is inherently better than all others, failing to account for the rise of "unorthodox" success stories that employ different models to reach high levels of development as well.

For so long have we failed to listen to our own inner voice, the so called 'development partners' dictated to us how to solve our problems within the context of Western gain (SAPs et al) that we failed to go anywhere. Well, things are changing; we are becoming just as smart, as savvy and as cunning as our Western and BRICs brothers. After being so ill-treated we have learnt that people shall only help others when it is in their self-interest to do so. An illustrative example is that though Ghana - through the GNPC - courted investors for over 25 years to explore for crude oil off our coast, they invariably balked to make the significant commitment of funding and resources necessary. That is, until 2003 when crude oil begun its inexorable climb culminating in an all time high in 2008. More money continues to pour in as the era of high crude prices comes here to stay. Investor interest, risk tolerance and psychology towards Ghana have changed drastically, because there is an internal catalyst (Ghana's crude itself) and also external pressures (High Prices) which are forcing IOCs to go where they were previously adamant to go.

I understand general Western psychology, and I know exactly how Ghanaians think (and to some extent Africans in general) and I have reconciled the two in a model that works very well for me and mine. It would behove any investor to take this advice freely given, seriously. In order to survive in Ghana, or Africa at large you need not be emotionally invested. Investment approaches must be unorthodox if they will succeed because NOTHING works as it should here, or at least they work differently. Understanding that this is a rapidly evolving and developing landscape would go a long way to inform your investment approach. Venture Capital exists in Africa but on a small scale because African's are only now inculcating a culture of repaying loans into our mindset - our traditions denotes any loan or some such as a gift that need not be repaid in a fixed period, but rather a favor the beneficiary owes the loaner. If you want to succeed in venture capital, a resource that is severely needed to bolster the local financial markets then one has to engage on a serious educational campaign to sensitize the target market about the business before one can expect a sizable deal flow.

I recently worked with my boss to come up with a presentation for an eminent government Minister. He was part of the Ghanaian delegation that attended the TIMES CEO Conference in London. As my reward I was given copies of all the documents from the conference and the overarching theme was that attitudes towards Africa were changing from one of patronage and pity to that of respect and marvel. This is because the hope of the world recovering in the long-term from a century of excesses rests on Africa. This is moreso now that the BRICs also have to manage growth and associated inflationary pressures. Africa is the last remaining investment frontier; Africa is true virgin territory, and for once, Africans appreciate this fact themselves. All the gains that Ghana has made over the past two decades were made by Ghanaians, without much help from the West. Donor aid has done little to solve problems but rather to accentuate them, fattening the Dinosaurs and not achieving much on the ground (see Dead Aid).

Fortunately, my generation has refused to abide by the fallacies perpetuated by our forbears, or by the West. My friends and I have all been educated in the West, but we have been radicalized by our return and appreciation of the changing dynamics of our birthplaces. I have been here in Ghana for 5 years straight and that’s enough time to figure out how this system works, and how to get things done. If anything I have always desired to educate others about what I have learnt, such that they may not make the same mistakes I made and thereby contribute to the occurring paradigm shift where people avoid possible mistakes and as quickly as possible (which is still going to take a while) seize opportunities that present themselves before foreigners enslave us all over again, with soothing words and mental shackles this time instead of painful physical chains.

So that is the context within which any investor should place people such as myself - we are the the “New Capitalists” of Africa. I am fortunate enough to understand that the patterns of global power structures and poles are gradually shifting; away from the West and more towards the South. It would take time, perhaps my generation may not even fully witness our eclipse of the world as we rise, but I will ensure that I do all that I can to make this happen. I will do any and all that is in my POWER to ensure that Ghana, my motherland and Africa my beloved continent leaps to the forefront of Global socio-economic and political dynamics and make up for the many centuries of primitiveness and backward development that has plagued us. Begrudge me not my destiny or that of my motherland, if anything be hopeful because Africa is still big enough for all of us to play in – so long as the game is fair and mutually beneficial.

I do not mean to sound trite, but this century is indeed the century of the developing world. Unfortunately, a lot of traditional Western investment powerhouses are still greenhorns who are enamored by the textbook definitions of Africa. That is why the Chinese are gaining heavy concessions all over the continent; because they are willing to play the game on African terms. Any investor must understand that this if our turf and the rules are different from what they know. Perhaps most importantly, investors must realize that gone are the days when we were ignorant of our potential, when we foolishly gave away all our treasures for paltry gains and selfish ends. These practices still exist no doubt, but the culture is changing, some people are beginning to realize that we must look beyond ourselves in order to gain the most – I am one of those people and my hope is to call more ambassadors to the cause – I am NOT ALONE!

I always encourage African neophytes to fly into Ghana and roll with my friends, associates and myself. It is only then that they would see the reason why there is all this hullaballoo about this land of magic and sorrow. And they should also remember that if they make promises they must not fail to deliver, some of us have long memories and will not be toyed with by people who are neither ready, willing nor able to keep their word, because if you miss your opportunity, trust me, there are several interested parties who will be willing to play ball.

As I have oft stated, for me this is not just about money - this is about having a serious impact on my environs and my people; an indelibly positive impact. We cannot do that without wrestling with the West and the BRICs for enough economic power to change the social and political landscape appropriately. Again I repeat, begrudge me not my actions nor pass judgement because this is much bigger than me or you, this is about joining a movement that will have global consequences in decades to come. It will not be easy, there have been and will continue to be drawbacks, but overall I am optimistic and I believe you should be too.

Oh and by the way, if you are interested I can give you a solid foothold in the most promising African nation at the turn of the century. You know where to find me!?!? Facebook :)

Cheers